India likely to use military forces to Pak provocations: US intel

India is likely to use military forces against Pak provocations. Annual threat assessment of the U.S Intelligence Community reports.

US intelligence report warned, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocation.

The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community report states that military action is more likely to happen under Modi than ever in the past. The report adds that Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups. 

“Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints”, the report says.

Crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two
nuclear-armed states. New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their
relationship following both sides’ renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control in early 2021, the report adds.

India-China conflict

While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will
remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the US intel warns.

The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed
confrontation between the two nuclear powers. That might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests,
and calls for U.S. intervention.

Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly.

Russia does not want a direct fight with USA

Russia probably does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces, but there is
potential for that to occur. Russian leaders thus far have avoided taking actions that would broaden the
Ukraine conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk for escalation remains significant.

There is real potential for Russia’s military failures in the war to hurt Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s domestic standing and thereby trigger additional escalators actions by Russia in an effort to win
back public support.

China and Russia will maintain their strategic ties driven by their shared threat perceptions of the
United States. This creates potential threats to security collaboration, specifically arms
sales and joint exercises, and diplomacy. Both countries have used their veto power on the UN
Security Council against U.S. interests.

MILITARY CAPABILITIES of NORTH KOREA

North Korea’s military will pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies. Kim is continuing to prioritize efforts to build an increasingly capable missile force designed to evade U.S. and regional missile defenses.

Pyongyang probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States.