Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
The energy sector is the source of around three‐quarters of greenhouse gas emissions
today and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change, perhaps the
greatest challenge humankind has faced. Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to
net zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to limit the long‐term increase in average global
temperatures to 1.5 °C. This calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we
produce, transport and consume energy. The growing political consensus on reaching net
zero is cause for considerable optimism about the progress the world can make, but the
changes required to reach net‐zero emissions globally by 2050 are poorly understood. A huge
amount of work is needed to turn today’s impressive ambitions into reality, especially given
the range of different situations among countries and their differing capacities to make the
necessary changes. This special IEA report sets out a pathway for achieving this goal, resulting
in a clean and resilient energy system that would bring major benefits for human prosperity
and well‐being.
The global pathway to net‐zero emissions by 2050 detailed in this report requires all
governments to significantly strengthen and then successfully implement their energy and
climate policies. Commitments made to date fall far short of what is required by that
pathway. The number of countries that have pledged to achieve net‐zero emissions has
grown rapidly over the last year and now covers around 70% of global emissions of CO2. This
is a huge step forward. However, most pledges are not yet underpinned by near‐term policies
and measures. Moreover, even if successfully fulfilled, the pledges to date would still leave
around 22 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions worldwide in 2050. The continuation of that trend
would be consistent with a temperature rise in 2100 of around 2.1 °C. Global emissions fell
in 2020 because of the Covid‐19 crisis but are already rebounding strongly as economies
recover. Further delay in acting to reverse that trend will put net zero by 2050 out of reach.
In this Summary for Policy Makers, we outline the essential conditions for the global energy
sector to reach net‐zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The pathway described in depth in this
report achieves this objective with no offsets from outside the energy sector, and with low
reliance on negative emissions technologies. It is designed to maximise technical feasibility,
cost‐effectiveness and social acceptance while ensuring continued economic growth and
secure energy supplies. We highlight the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the
opportunity of net zero by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The report provides
a global view, but countries do not start in the same place or finish at the same time:
advanced economies have to reach net zero before emerging markets and developing
economies, and assist others in getting there. We also recognise that the route mapped out
here is a path, not necessarily the path, and so we examine some key uncertainties, notably
concerning the roles played by bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes. Getting
to net zero will involve countless decisions by people across the world, but our primary aim
is to inform the decisions made by policy makers, who have the greatest scope to move the
world closer to its climate goals.
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14 International Energy Agency | Special Report
Net zero by 2050 hinges on an unprecedented clean technology push to 2030
The path to net‐zero emissions is narrow: staying on it requires immediate and massive
deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies. In the net‐zero
emissions pathway presented in this report, the world economy in 2030 is some 40% larger
than today but uses 7% less energy. A major worldwide push to increase energy efficiency is
an essential part of these efforts, resulting in the annual rate of energy intensity
improvements averaging 4% to 2030 – about three‐times the average rate achieved over the
last two decades. Emissions reductions from the energy sector are not limited to CO2: in our
pathway, methane emissions from fossil fuel supply fall by 75% over the next ten years as a
result of a global, concerted effort to deploy all available abatement measures and
technologies.
Ever‐cheaper renewable energy technologies give electricity the edge in the race to zero.
Our pathway calls for scaling up solar and wind rapidly this decade, reaching annual additions
of 630 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaics (PV) and 390 GW of wind by 2030, four‐times
the record levels set in 2020. For solar PV, this is equivalent to installing the world’s current
largest solar park roughly every day. Hydropower and nuclear, the two largest sources of
low‐carbon electricity today, provide an essential foundation for transitions. As the
electricity sector becomes cleaner, electrification emerges as a crucial economy‐wide tool
for reducing emissions. Electric vehicles (EVs) go from around 5% of global car sales to more
than 60% by 2030.
