El Niño is likely to be developed later this year, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization. This would have the opposite impact on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world to the long-running La Niña. El Niño would likely fuel higher global temperatures.
The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run. The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). There is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September.
“We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase. The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year. It is because of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
The world should prepare for El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought, or rainfall in different parts of the world. La Niña would help trigger more extreme weather and climate events.
El Niño triggers the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months. El Niño events spike rainfall but can also cause severe drought conditions.
