The study estimates there will be over 800 million cases of low back pain in 2050. A 36 percent increase from 2020. It is largely due to population increase and aging people, according to a report in the Lancet Rheumatology journal.
The researchers analyzed over 30 years of data showing that the landscape of back pain cases is set to shift. By 2050, a 36·4% increase in the total number of cases of low back pain is expected globally. The most substantial increases are expected to be seen in Asia and Africa. The continued lack of a consistent approach to back pain treatment, and limited treatment will lead to a healthcare crisis, as low backpain is the leading cause of disability in the world, according to the report.
The study reveals several milestones in back pain cases. Since 2017, the number of low back pain cases has ticked over to more than half a billion people. In 2020, there were approximately 619 million cases of back pain. At least one-third of the disability burden associated with back pain was attributable to occupational factors, smoking, and being overweight.
264 million workdays lost due to Back Pain
The high rate of low backpain prevalence observed in all regions globally could have some important social and economic consequences. For instance, from 2012 to 2014, the direct aggregate costs for all individuals with a spine condition in the USA were US$315 billion. A further societal and economic impact of low backpain stems from its high prevalence and substantial burden in working-age people.
An average of 100 days absent from work per person per year were due to low backpain in Brazil. In the USA, 15·4% of the workforce report an average of 10·5 lost workdays per year due to chronic low backpain. This is equivalent to approximately 264 million workdays lost. People who retire early because of low backpain have substantially less total wealth and income-producing assets than those who remain in full-time employment.
Low back pain remains the main contributor to disability worldwide, the study says.
