According to UN projections, the total annual global deaths will reach nearly 90 million in 2048. WHO projects 77 million will be non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. It represents a 90% increase in the NCD death toll from 2019.
The World Health Statistics 2023 report summarises the trends in life expectancy and causes of annual global death It reports on progress towards the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and associated targets.
The average life expectancy of a human born in 1950 was just 46.5 years. But by 2019, it had increased to 73 years. According to the United Nations projection, global life expectancy would reach 77 years y 2048 – an increase of more than 30 years since 2019.
High prevalence of NCD
Remarkable progress in human longevity reflects the rapid epidemiological transition that has taken place during the last century. This global transition reports the shifting burden of diseases – from infectious diseases to the high prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
In 2000, 61% of global deaths were due to NCDs. Another 31% were deaths from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions.
By 2019, global deaths from NCDs had increased to 74%, while the communicable group had fallen to 18%. Deaths attributed to injuries remained roughly constant at around 8%. This broad trend across all regions is similar. As a result of population growth and aging, the total number of annual deaths will grow dramatically in the decades ahead.
On a regional level, the relative increase in NCD deaths between 2019 and 2048 will range from under 30% in the European Region to over 210% in the African Region. NCDs will take their greatest toll in Western Pacific. Nearly 21 million NCD deaths are projected annually by 2048 in this region.
The World Health Statistics 2023 report is the World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual compilation of the latest available data on health and health-related indicators. Published since 2005.
